Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 20.039624 24.143470 28.672885 34.015620 40.117035 46.839126 54.775635
2025-07-13 14.461851 19.917726 26.560689 35.122488 45.734125 58.320263 74.231285
2025-07-20 11.267006 17.272176 25.165822 36.036073 50.325183 68.163086 91.774165
2025-07-27 9.247015 15.554791 24.402246 37.265532 54.984639 77.999671 109.544065
2025-08-03 7.695192 14.108374 23.650299 38.204290 59.076839 87.110227 126.658623
2025-08-10 6.156381 12.332740 22.085715 37.678133 60.921595 93.138335 139.821731
2025-08-17 5.152705 11.201123 21.280227 38.076464 63.964481 100.819072 155.433411
2025-08-24 4.246444 10.037174 20.223205 37.902705 66.041911 107.129496 169.307925
2025-08-31 3.341939 8.665318 18.594231 36.584778 66.188736 110.547935 179.113536
2025-09-07 2.872936 8.051591 18.187873 37.200853 69.321799 118.433176 195.593971
2025-09-14 2.311933 7.101272 17.012703 36.345395 69.976170 122.546886 206.621713
2025-09-21 2.032243 6.723670 16.872077 37.278832 73.582915 131.291917 224.822054
2025-09-28 1.488633 5.574981 15.075544 35.127156 72.071445 132.336868 232.018782
2025-10-05 1.291326 5.281381 15.033241 36.299767 76.404643 142.944153 254.467410
2025-10-12 1.108508 4.967293 14.888554 37.240056 80.363453 153.097936 276.565659
2025-10-19 0.971056 4.744098 14.910740 38.501974 84.957121 164.463817 300.950177
2025-10-26 0.838071 4.485363 14.800795 39.465239 89.037740 175.117988 324.532285
2025-11-02 0.663093 3.997836 14.028737 38.925371 90.238690 180.926678 340.456272
2025-11-09 0.553834 3.708700 13.713068 39.334087 93.250047 189.923556 361.840048
2025-11-16 0.445110 3.361204 13.167975 39.155800 95.080959 196.912287 380.096646
2025-11-23 0.328161 2.892851 12.171821 37.803388 94.458543 199.516517 391.078875
2025-11-30 0.276256 2.719902 12.018577 38.435615 97.878156 209.439287 414.672132
2025-12-07 0.206852 2.387418 11.287720 37.557714 98.103469 213.570765 428.498714